Futurism & Geopolitical Round-up (December 2023).
Peering into what’s happening around the world through the lens of Futurism & Geopolitical analysis, and remembering that the best way to get the future you want is to create it. Here’s your December 2023 round-up.
This intriguing thought piece from David Shapiro presents a phased approach to the future of work and economic paradigms, anticipating major shifts due to automation and artificial intelligence.
Phase 1, titled “Early Victims,” focuses on the initial impact of automation on the workforce. It suggests that creative professions, often undervalued in traditional markets, along with back-office clerical and administrative roles, are the first to be affected. The rule of thumb here is that jobs which are forgivable and unregulated are most vulnerable to automation.
Phase 2, “Winding Down,” proposes transitioning away from human labor through shorter work weeks. This strategy is aimed at giving people time to adapt to life without traditional employment, finding new hobbies and meanings. It also encourages companies to automate more tasks. Recommendations include moving towards a 4-day and eventually a 3-day work week and embracing remote work, allowing people to move to lower-cost areas.
In Phase 3, “Safety Nets,” as total employment begins to plateau and then drop, the establishment (Federal and State governments) starts to recognize this new reality. Tools like unemployment benefits are expanded, and there’s a growing acknowledgment of the need for a new economic paradigm, termed Post-Labor Economics. This phase expects politicians and mainstream media to start addressing these issues.
Phase 4, “Post-Labor Economics,” involves cities, states, and federal governments adapting to this new economic reality. It discusses the implementation of Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Universal Basic Services (UBS), along with the necessity of some form of redistribution, despite persistent problems.
The video also addresses the “New Social Contract” where the government mediates the relationship between citizens and businesses, as traditional labor diminishes. It raises concerns about maintaining economic agency in a world where labor is not a primary commodity. The concept of “Decentralized Ownership” is introduced as a solution, highlighting models like DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations), Public Trusts, and Local Co-ops for collective ownership and management of resources and businesses.
“Swarm DAO” is mentioned as a speculative idea for collective ownership of AI-driven companies, suggesting a shift towards stakeholder capitalism rather than shareholder capitalism. The video acknowledges the “Expertise Gap,” suggesting that AI could manage utilities and businesses on behalf of humans. It also touches upon the idea of “Stakeholder Capitalism,” which focuses on maximizing value for all stakeholders, not just shareholders.
In terms of policy recommendations, the video suggests that towns and cities prepare for an urban exodus and implement Circular Economics. State policies could include collective ownership models, relocation support, and UBI. At the federal level, a new social contract led by the president and congress is deemed essential. The timeline for these developments is set around 2027 to 2028, with the expectation of a gradual expansion of automation starting from the early adopters phase, moving to the early majority in 2024.
In this interview with Whitney Webb, an independent investigative journalist, a discussion unfolds covering a range of pressing topics. Webb, known for her deep dives into intelligence, tech, surveillance, and civil liberties, brings her expertise to an enlightening conversation about the evolving landscape of financial freedom and technology. A significant portion of the discussion is devoted to the intersection of Bitcoin with Wall Street and government entities, examining how this digital currency is being integrated into mainstream finance and state systems.
Another critical area of focus is artificial intelligence, where Webb explores the contrast between open-source and closed-source technologies and their broader implications. The conversation also ventures into the realm of cybersecurity, discussing the nature and impact of cyber threats and the increasing relevance of simulations in preparing for these challenges. Adding to the depth of the episode, Webb shares insights from her latest investigative work into cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This episode not only delves into technical and financial topics but also touches upon the broader themes of privacy, regulation, and the potential future of online anonymity.
The debate on whether the future will be abundant is a compelling one, encompassing various aspects of human progress and challenges. On one hand, there’s a view that humanity, having evolved from the dawn of agriculture through the Industrial Revolution, is now at an unprecedented level of prosperity. Supporters of this optimistic outlook point to the global decline in mortality rates, the rise in living standards, and the increased access to resources. They also highlight the steps being taken to address the early effects of climate change, suggesting a trajectory towards continued improvement and abundance.
Contrasting this perspective, some express concerns about the future, focusing on the growing socio-economic disparities and the potential impacts of deglobalization. They argue that these factors, along with the looming environmental crisis which is nearing a critical point, could lead to a less abundant future. The debate is further enriched by the viewpoints of two experts: Peter Diamandis, Founder and Executive Chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, who argues in favor of a future marked by abundance, and Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, who presents a case against this notion. The discussion is moderated by Xenia Wickett, a geopolitical strategist and Trustee of Transparency International UK, offering an insightful platform for exploring these diverse perspectives on what the future holds.
In the intricate world of Chinese politics, Xi Jinping, a “red princeling” and the current Chinese leader, presents a fascinating study of power dynamics. His father, a vice premier under Mao Zedong, bestowed upon Xi a legacy deeply entwined with the country’s political elite. Initially, Xi leveraged the support of fellow princelings — the descendants of revolutionary leaders — to strengthen his hold on power and neutralize his political adversaries. However, over the years, the tides have shifted, leading to strained relationships with other prominent red descendants.
These princelings, once allies in Xi’s rise to power, have now emerged as a significant opposition force against him. The narrative of Xi Jinping’s tenure is marked by these evolving relationships within China’s political hierarchy. The complexity of Xi’s rule is further elucidated through the discussion of three distinct types of princelings and how their interactions and influence shape the landscape of Chinese politics. This shift in dynamics, from alliance to opposition, highlights the ever-changing nature of political alliances and power structures in China.
Dan characterizes 2023 as a year marked by the consequences of past decisions, particularly highlighting the impact of lockdowns. He argues that while lockdowns favored the “laptop class,” they inadvertently led to inflation affecting the wider population. This theme of unintended fallout extends to his discussion of governmental policies, with a focus on countries like Germany and the United States. He critiques Germany’s reliance on cheap Russian energy, a strategy that backfired in the wake of the Ukraine war, causing significant challenges for the country. Similarly, he views the United States’ involvement in Ukraine as a de facto proxy war, part of a series of missteps by the various governments involved.
A central concern raised is the growing global debt, which he warns is expanding at a faster rate than GDP, a trend he believes is unsustainable and could potentially trigger a debt spiral collapse. Additionally, heraises alarms about the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve losing control over the treasury market, a scenario that could have dire implications for the US government. The video concludes with Dan emphasizing the importance of understanding money flows and the need for a historical perspective to accurately interpret events. He points out that a lack of understanding in these areas often leads to misinterpretations of global events and economic trends.
